El Nino

[Storm11]

From CNN.com

El Nino forms in Pacific Ocean
POSTED: 1:54 p.m. EDT, September 13, 2006

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean that wreaks havoc with world weather conditions, has formed and will last into 2007, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Wednesday.

El Nino has already helped make the Atlantic hurricane season milder than expected, said a NOAA forecaster.

"The weak El Nino is helping to explain why the hurricane season is less than we expected. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for NOAA.

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said the El Nino probably will spur warmer-than-average temperatures this winter over western and central Canada and the western and northern United States.

It said El Nino also will cause wetter-than-average conditions in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and spark dry conditions in the Ohio valley, the Pacific Northwest and most U.S. islands in the tropical Pacific.

In Asia and South America, the last severe El Nino killed hundreds of people and caused billions of dollars in damage as crops shriveled across the Asia-Pacific basin. This El Nino has caused drier-than-average conditions across Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines.

Indonesia is the most populous Moslem country with over 200 million people, while the Philippines have nearly 90 million. Both are major importers of U.S. grains.

The CPC Web site said surface temperatures were substantially warmer than normal by early September in the Pacific. Scientists detect formation of El Ninos by monitoring sea surface temperatures with a system of buoys.

"Currently, weak El Nino conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," Vernon Kousky, the chief El Nino expert at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.

"The latest ... predictions indicate El Nino conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into the northern hemisphere spring [of] 2007," the CPC Web site explained.

El Nino, which means "little boy" in Spanish, hits once every three years or so. Anchovy fishermen in South America noticed the phenomenon in the 19th century and named it for the Christ child since it appeared around Christmas, and it normally peaks late in the year.
El Nino hinders hurricanes

One immediate impact of the El Nino is during the current Atlantic hurricane season, which follows on the heels of the record 28 storms and 15 hurricanes which struck in 2005.

Last year's howlers included monsters like Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. But this El Nino apparently has helped hinder storm formation in 2006. So far, there has only been seven tropical storms and two hurricanes halfway through the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends November 30.

Scientists said El Ninos disrupt storm formation because it allows wind shear to rip apart thunderstorms in the center of the hurricanes, reducing power and intensity as a result.
U.S. Northeast in for milder winter

An El Nino also usually leads to milder winter weather in the U.S. Northeast, the top heating oil market in the world.

Bell said scientists will have a better idea in the fall how long this El Nino will last. "There's no way to say at this time how strong it is going to be. It's too early," he said.

The last severe El Nino struck in 1997-1998. The weather phenomenon caused searing drought in Indonesia, Australia and the Philippines while causing rampant flooding in Ecuador and Chile, the world's top producer of copper.

[milkman]

El Nino is supposed to be bad for the PNW, but the last few (big or small) have still provided great snow years for Whistler.

[BigKuba]

Beat you by 2 minutes:
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...ad.php?t=61136

[Tuckerman]

The last severe El Nino struck in 1997-1998.

I was at Kirkwood that season and the snow was good. That's the same year as the big ice storm here on the east side.

[PNWbrit]

El Nino is supposed to be bad for the PNW, but the last few (big or small) have still provided great snow years for Whistler.

"An important conclusion from all of this data is to largely refute the common misconception among Pacific Northwest skiers that El Niño seasons are always terrible for snowfall in the Cascades. El Niño certainly does produce warmer than normal temperatures in the Northwest. However, El Niño seasons typically do have adequate precipitation, resulting in winter rainfall but also adequate snowfall, especially at higher elevations which are most important for spring/summer skiing and ski mountaineering. The strong El Niño average snowfalls of 330-400" at the major WA Cascade Passes and 600" at Paradise are certainly not bad at all, most other regions of the country only dream of such snowfall amounts. And the southern end of the Cascade Range does very well during El Niño seasons, with spring snowdepths averaging 20% above normal on Lassen and nearly 40% above normal on Shasta. The very worst snowfall seasons in the Cascade range, the real disasters, occur during severe drought years which are not well correlated with El Niño. The five worst Cascade snow seasons overall since 1950 have been 1962-63, 1976-77, 1980-81, 1991-92, and 2000-2001, of which only one is strong El Niño, one is weak El Niño, one is neutral, and two are weak La Niña. El Niño seasons are rarely disastrous for snowfall in the Cascades, but they are usually somewhat below normal in Washington and Oregon while averaging slightly above normal at higher elevations in British Columbia and much above normal in California. The correlation between ENSO and snowfall is much stronger in the opposite La Niña phase, and strong La Niña seasons are almost always above normal throughout the entire Cascade Range, especially so in the northern two-thirds of the range. The record-high snowfall and snowdepth amounts at most locations in the Cascades of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia were set during strong La Niña seasons, while in the California Cascades they were set during strong El Niño seasons."

http://www.skimountaineer.com/Cascad...eSnowENSO.html

[Cirquerider]

Tony Crocker recently completed an analysis of what ski areas benefit, lose or are neutral to El Nino and La Nina events. http://bestsnow.net/MEI_corr.htm

This is a great article and took a lot of work. Oddly, Tahoe doesn't see much effect, but I have noticed El Nino years seem to result in more precip and snow here. Much more benefit to Mammoth than Squaw.

[GoldMember]

At Schweitzer, we had our record snowfall in '96-'97, a La Nina year. We've had our worst (least snow, warm temps) winters with El Nina years. We want La Nina. La Nina's a babe! Unfortunately, we seem to get a lot more of the little bastard than the babe. Sucks.

[Endlessseason]

Ah, yes. '97-'98 El Nino season. I remember it well. Solly opened earlier than usual, on Nov 8th that year, and we'd already had tons of pow by Thanksgiving week in the Cottonwoods.

The season started off strong and kept providing consistent storms throughout. There were even a couple of good overnighters (with 30+ inches each) by Christmas.

That was actually the season that ended with 24" of pow on June 17th, which was Snowbird's final week of the '97-'98 season.

Welcome back, El Nino.

[GoldMember]

Cali and Utah seem to get all the storms in El Nino years. We get high pressure systems locked over our heads. Lots of bluebird, not very much snow. I may be making some trips to SLC if it's too crappy up here.

[FrankZappa]

Wow! This could be great news or, it could suck. Depending.

I think we should start some more threads about it.

[dbp]

"For those of you who don't habla Espanol, El Nino is Spanish for The Nino."

edit: testing...

[rideit]

After this last season here in the Tetons, I pretty much expect an 'average' year.

Average being 450"-500", of course!!!

[bdog]

" The five worst Cascade snow seasons overall since 1950 have been 1962-63, 1976-77, 1980-81, 1991-92, and 2000-2001, of which only one is strong El Niño, one is weak El Niño, one is neutral, and two are weak La Niña.

That was very good info ... other than the author did not include the winter of 2004 - 2005, which was the worst as far as no snowfall in the PNW in a decade. 1989 - 1990 also began with very little snow, no ski area's open in Oregon into January, but the El Nino event broke down as they often do by late February and then it dumped through late June. Still too late to help the ski industry

[ak_powder_monkey]

I think '98 was the year alyeska got 950" chances are it'll rain in Juneau though, can't be much worse then last year anyway

[ANON-505]

yayyy

southwestern skiers rejoice for the return of el nino!

praise ullr and the little boy!!

[Mofro261]

That was very good info ... other than the author did not include the winter of 2004 - 2005, which was the worst as far as no snowfall in the PNW in a decade. 1989 - 1990 also began with very little snow, no ski area's open in Oregon into January, but the El Nino event broke down as they often do by late February and then it dumped through late June. Still too late to help the ski industry

January 1990 is etched in my mind. At Alpental they didn't open until New Years, but then 300 inches fell in 20 days from Jan 18th into Feb averaging 15 inches/night with at least 6 new every night. Probably the best of my 6 winters of College.

Usually El Nino sucks though, funneling the Pineapple express toward WA. We end up getting a ton of snow above 6000-7000ft. Above any lift accessible terrain.

Personally, I'm hoping for the El Mofro, the unexplained phenomenon where bacon falls from the sky when it's not snowing.

[skieurmalade]

Orale!!!

Que Viva Taos!

Que Viva Santa Fe!!!!!

owwwwwwwwww!!!!!

[tijuana bass]

We love El Niño here in Arizona. Bienvenido, Sr. Niño. Que sea como el 2004-2005. Pickin' up my pass on Saturday!!!!

[StormDay]

Yesterday El Nino in the news.

Today Tahoe radar: (Looks more than partly cloudy)

Looks stormy outside in Berkeley today. Was planning on an afternoon mtn bike ride...

[String]

Fuck you El Nino and the horse you ride in on!

[Cyber Cop]

I think somebody should fucking jinx the shit out of the southwest already.

This season is so gonna suck donkey balls. I'm selling my board and getting gaper stix so I can ride hard pack at Toas all season yay!

-sheriff cock.

[rideit]

Personally, I'm hoping for the El Mofro, the unexplained phenomenon where bacon falls from the sky when it's not snowing.

How do you wax for that?

[Professor Chaos]

Aww crap. Coming off a pretty damn good season last year here in Van/Whistler this is really gonna shitter it up. Stupid El Nino.

[Nohillsnearby]

How do you wax for that?

Full brazillian....

[ANON-505]

yah, all "toas" has is hardpack. stay away. farrrrr away, you'd totally hate it down here.

I think somebody should fucking jinx the shit out of the southwest already.

This season is so gonna suck donkey balls. I'm selling my board and getting gaper stix so I can ride hard pack at Toas all season yay!

-sheriff cock.