Is the stock market going to tank?

**Lawless** · 08-27-2021, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by CovertM

Like when I bought & sold SPRT $17, $18, $30 calls all week as day trades. Sold a bucket of $30c yesterday before close for $3.5, bought for $1.2. Woke up today to them selling for $20-$30 throughout the mayhem today. Fu Kung sentiment is right!

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Had a MARA call lose a bit over 1,100% today.

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**SKIP IN7RO** · 08-27-2021, 05:57 PM

For all you Dollar General players out there, I have some insider info for you. The South Fork, CO location makes so much money that they now close at 4:00PM.

**cspringsposer** · 08-27-2021, 07:45 PM

Originally Posted by shera

Hey thanks for responding. Maybe this is too simplistic, but does market sentiment play into into option valuation? Take the fear/greed index for example - when greed is high are puts cheaper?

If you have any links to help me study, I'd be grateful. I like charts.

I used this video to help me learn options trading...if that's what you're interested in. The guy does a great job taking you from knowing nothing about options to being able to execute an options trade in 3 hours.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7PM4rNDr4oI

**CovertM** · 08-27-2021, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by Lawless

Had a MARA call lose a bit over 1,100% today.

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LOL, I had a ton of MARA called away last week @ $32 and it appears the rest will be called away next week @ $35. Unless something drastic happens. Which seems to happen with these miner positions.

**4matic** · 08-27-2021, 08:48 PM

Originally Posted by shera

Hey thanks for responding. Maybe this is too simplistic, but does market sentiment play into into option valuation? Take the fear/greed index for example - when greed is high are puts cheaper?

If you have any links to help me study, I'd be grateful. I like charts.

The VIX indices are a measure of option premium value in front month options.

**AEvospace** · 08-27-2021, 09:05 PM

I bought SRGA and FLXN last week. Both are up 20-30%+ since, and I feel great.

How could I have made more $$ with options, can someone explain this to me? You don't have to go into detail, just tell me what I would have done otherwise if I had a gut hunch the stock was going to go up this much this soon. Calls for,,which date? How would I have dealt with this both short term and long-ish term, since I'm probably going to hold a few more weeks.

I'm asking because I always thought the whole point of option strategies were to make quite a bit more than just buying securities and holding, and I honestly don't know what's good. I've been putting this off for a while, it seems so complicated compared.

**Lawless** · 08-27-2021, 09:39 PM

Originally Posted by AEvospace

I bought SRGA and FLXN last week. Both are up 20-30%+ since, and I feel great.

How could I have made more $$ with options, can someone explain this to me? You don't have to go into detail, just tell me what I would have done otherwise if I had a gut hunch the stock was going to go up this much this soon. Calls for,,which date? How would I have dealt with this both short term and long-ish term, since I'm probably going to hold a few more weeks.

I'm asking because I always thought the whole point of option strategies were to make quite a bit more than just buying securities and holding, and I honestly don't know what's good. I've been putting this off for a while, it seems so complicated compared.

You could have either bought call options, or sold put options. Call options would be the play if you really think it was going to go up. Put options if you think it was probably going to go up.

An example from today. You really think MARA is going to increase... You buy many 38 call options when it opened this morning expiring today. The call options cost $19, which gives you control of 100 shares. The shares rise from $36 to $40. Each option is worth $200 at the end of the day. 10x in one day. The other outcome of that is MARA is worth $37 at the end of the day and you wipe your butt with that contract to get some value out of it.

The advantage to buying calls is that you put up small amounts of money to control large amounts of shares. Disadvantage of buying calls is that you either win and control shares for cheaper than going rate, or lose and have nothing to show for your investment.

Best outcome of put options in that scenario is you sell a put for $300 for $39 at the start of the day and it expires worthless, meaning you put up $3,900 and made $300 in a day.

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**AEvospace** · 08-27-2021, 09:46 PM

Thx

I have a lot to learn.

**m2711c** · 08-28-2021, 08:20 AM

tdameritrade has a great paper trading platform. lets you try out all of the fancy trading shenanigans that you can think of. It's a good place to practice, and to keep track of alternates versions of the trades that you actually did make.

https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/tools/paper-trading

https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/...imulator-16834

**shera** · 08-29-2021, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by CovertM

There is so much out there for great options education. R/thetagang isn’t too bad but was better a bit ago. Tastytrades, optsionsstrat, and your broker should have great info.

Like Lee told me a while ago, you can read a lot and listen to a lot, but you have to just start doing it to really learn. Keep options right sized and don’t play with anything you don’t mind losing.

Thanks I will look into those sources. Just to clarify, I DO expect to lose the money I put into options, because I am thinking of using them to cover my portfolio during long tail events. But I want to use only a little money, relatively speaking, to do that. Insurance. Hopefully, if my options expired worthless, it means I successfully traded spot - that;s the idea anyway.

Originally Posted by cspringsposer

I used this video to help me learn options trading...if that's what you're interested in. The guy does a great job taking you from knowing nothing about options to being able to execute an options trade in 3 hours.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7PM4rNDr4oI

Thank you, I will watch,

Originally Posted by 4matic

The VIX indices are a measure of option premium value in front month options.

VIX is a measure of volatility of the SnP, is that right? How do you use that to value options in a single, maybe unrelated asset? Actually how does volatility play into options in general? Are options more expensive during higher volatility?

Originally Posted by AEvospace

I'm asking because I always thought the whole point of option strategies were to make quite a bit more than just buying securities and holding, and I honestly don't know what's good. I've been putting this off for a while, it seems so complicated compared.

See I am considering options as a complement to a hodl strategy, to cover downside risk. A hedge.

"What Is a Hedge?
A hedge is an investment that is made with the intention of reducing the risk of adverse price movements in an asset. Normally, a hedge consists of taking an offsetting or opposite position in a related security."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hedge.asp

Originally Posted by Lawless

You could have either bought call options, or sold put options. Call options would be the play if you really think it was going to go up. Put options if you think it was probably going to go up.

An example from today. You really think MARA is going to increase... You buy many 38 call options when it opened this morning expiring today. The call options cost $19, which gives you control of 100 shares. The shares rise from $36 to $40. Each option is worth $200 at the end of the day. 10x in one day. The other outcome of that is MARA is worth $37 at the end of the day and you wipe your butt with that contract to get some value out of it.

The advantage to buying calls is that you put up small amounts of money to control large amounts of shares. Disadvantage of buying calls is that you either win and control shares for cheaper than going rate, or lose and have nothing to show for your investment.

Best outcome of put options in that scenario is you sell a put for $300 for $39 at the start of the day and it expires worthless, meaning you put up $3,900 and made $300 in a day.

This is complicated, meaty. I will read it a couple more times, hahaha.

Originally Posted by m2711c

tdameritrade has a great paper trading platform. lets you try out all of the fancy trading shenanigans that you can think of. It's a good place to practice, and to keep track of alternates versions of the trades that you actually did make.

https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/tools/paper-trading

https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/...imulator-16834

I really like the idea of paper trading, but for my purpose, I think a backtest might work out better? Just with paper and pencil, er, I mean spreadsheet.

Also, I don't guess tdameritrade is serving up bitcoin options? Maybe some proxy like mocrostrategy, but then I would need to study pa of microstrategy, I mean does it really track bitcoin price? /rhetorical because I'm not doing that extra work

**AEvospace** · 08-29-2021, 01:38 PM

Originally Posted by shera

See I am considering options as a complement to a hodl strategy, to cover downside risk. A hedge.

"What Is a Hedge?
A hedge is an investment that is made with the intention of reducing the risk of adverse price movements in an asset. Normally, a hedge consists of taking an offsetting or opposite position in a related security."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hedge.asp

I have never hedged in my life, other than pull out of a stock completely and get into an inverse fund when the general market was going down.

The idea of being able to control more of the same shares, with less money, makes a lot more sense than pulling out and going with a general inverse.

**4matic** · 08-29-2021, 01:59 PM

Originally Posted by shera

VIX is a measure of volatility of the SnP, is that right? How do you use that to value options in a single, maybe unrelated asset? Actually how does volatility play into options in general? Are options more expensive during higher volatility?

Volatility IS the price of options. Price of options represent consensus on the potential of what percentage move.

VIX Explained:
Rather than representing the price of a commodity, interest rate, or exchange rate, the VIX shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility in the stock market. It is a calculated index based on the price of options on the S&P 500.

**m2711c** · 08-29-2021, 04:09 PM

Originally Posted by shera

I really like the idea of paper trading, but for my purpose, I think a backtest might work out better? Just with paper and pencil, er, I mean spreadsheet.

Also, I don't guess tdameritrade is serving up bitcoin options? Maybe some proxy like mocrostrategy, but then I would need to study pa of microstrategy, I mean does it really track bitcoin price? /rhetorical because I'm not doing that extra work

you clearly did not read through that link. do your own "extra work".

**shera** · 08-30-2021, 02:30 AM

Sorry no I haven't dived into it yet. I will, promise.

**shera** · 08-30-2021, 08:05 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Volatility IS the price of options. Price of options represent consensus on the potential of what percentage move.

VIX Explained:
Rather than representing the price of a commodity, interest rate, or exchange rate, the VIX shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility in the stock market. It is a calculated index based on the price of options on the S&P 500.

I think my head is about to explode. Price of Options -> VIX -> implied volatility?

Voltility is volatility in the price of options, not in the price action of the SnP?

Not sure if any of this is going to help me advantageously price btc options, but at least I am starting to get some idea of the variables. Thanks...

**Lawless** · 08-30-2021, 09:44 AM

Originally Posted by shera

I think my head is about to explode. Price of Options -> VIX -> implied volatility?

Voltility is volatility in the price of options, not in the price action of the SnP?

Not sure if any of this is going to help me advantageously price btc options, but at least I am starting to get some idea of the variables. Thanks...

You should start off by searching options Greeks. That will help explain where options pricing comes from. There are a number of factors involved.

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**JimmyCarter** · 08-30-2021, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by shera

I think my head is about to explode. Price of Options -> VIX -> implied volatility?

Voltility is volatility in the price of options, not in the price action of the SnP?

Not sure if any of this is going to help me advantageously price btc options, but at least I am starting to get some idea of the variables. Thanks...

Vix is volatility of an s&p bucket, has nothing to do with specific share/option pricing other than as a broader sentiment gauge.

Individual stocks have individual volatility. The only known number is historic volatility (how shares moved over historical period) but when options are bought or sold, the price (premium paid) is used to estimate implied volatility for those shares (basically using a black scholes backsolve.)

So option pricing is driven by volatility expectations, but the future volatility is only discovered through the market activity for the options themselves.

**shera** · 08-30-2021, 10:08 AM

that actually makes sense, I just need to drill it into my head

**AEvospace** · 09-02-2021, 07:39 PM

Woot Woot it's fookin nookin in Missoula. Wish I had more confidence in option strategies, it could be puukin.

Up almost 50% on FLXN the past few weeks. Almost 40% on SRGA. I'm thinking I should just hold these guys through next year, fuck any slight downturns at the price I'm in at. What do you guys think? Just in these particular companies, I see even doubling from here honestly, with the pipeline and even just a slight increase in elective surgeries, which is a given no? Without pipeline, both are already FDA approved and making money.

**dunfree** · 09-03-2021, 07:13 AM

Originally Posted by dunfree

Just wait until Xi hits them up for $20 huge.

$15.5 over 5 years, crazy how the narrative don’t care.

**shera** · 09-03-2021, 09:47 AM

COIN is making another leg up, I might sell some more at resistance $305ish?

You know it almost looks like a very simple channel, maybe I should trade it? Rebuy level around $250? Any opinions on the chart?

**4matic** · 09-03-2021, 04:04 PM

Nine trading days till quarterly expiration.

**LeeLau** · 09-04-2021, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by CovertM

Like when I bought & sold SPRT $17, $18, $30 calls all week as day trades. Sold a bucket of $30c yesterday before close for $3.5, bought for $1.2. Woke up today to them selling for $20-$30 throughout the mayhem today. Fu Kung sentiment is right!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Markets are so entertaining. I sold a metric buttload of SPRT 39C naked as it went from 30 to 55. The next week I was going to establish a bear call spread by buying long calls as SPRT market makers put higher priced calls in place. But the underlying tanked hard so fast that I haven't bothered. Still short the calls.

Still long GME. Ditto RIOT and collecting money from it. A bit disappointed they're filing yet another share offering which is a drag on the stock. MARA is def kicking its ass.

Still short NKLA and WKHS also. Covered RiDE

**shera** · 09-05-2021, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

Markets are so entertaining. I sold a metric buttload of SPRT 39C naked as it went from 30 to 55. The next week I was going to establish a bear call spread by buying long calls as SPRT market makers put higher priced calls in place. But the underlying tanked hard so fast that I haven't bothered. Still short the calls.

Still long GME. Ditto RIOT and collecting money from it. A bit disappointed they're filing yet another share offering which is a drag on the stock. MARA is def kicking its ass.

Still short NKLA and WKHS also. Covered RiDE

Are you saying you are long memes and bitcoin mining? Be still my beating heart!

Talk to me about ARK

**Benny Profane** · 09-07-2021, 08:11 AM

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...-the-big-long/

"It’s unreasonable to expect you can earn ridiculous riches in such a short period of time. And yet, so many people in tech and crypto have done just that in recent years.
This cycle has defied all well-reasoned financial advice.
Don’t chase yield. Don’t speculate. Don’t invest in something you don’t understand. Don’t invest in something with no intrinsic value. Don’t expect to get rich quickly.
Certain investors are now so conditioned to see huge gains in a hurry they assume it’s the norm.
It’s not."